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# Fiscal Policy in Nepal: A 2026 Outlook Nepal's fiscal trajectory depends on three **interlocking** variables: revenue mobilization, capital expenditure, and debt servicing. ## Revenue Trends - VAT collection grew 12% YoY - Income tax remained flat - Customs duties declined 3% > The single biggest risk is *execution capacity*, not fiscal space. ### A simple model $$ \text{Deficit}_t = G_t - T_t = \alpha Y_t + \varepsilon_t $$ | Year | Revenue (Rs bn) | Expenditure | Deficit | |------|----------------:|------------:|--------:| | 2023 | 1,023 | 1,278 | 255 | | 2024 | 1,154 | 1,401 | 247 | See [the full report](https://example.com/report) for details. ```python def deficit(revenue, spending): return spending - revenue
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Arjun Bhujel

Economist and civil servant. Researching fiscal policy, development economics, and governance reform. All views are personal.